In this op-ed, former vice-chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Sandy Winnefeld and former Air Force Materiel Command head Ellen Pawlikowski call for greater, more flexible cybersecurity options for space systems.
When it comes to the security of space assets, there is widespread agreement the greatest threat will come in the cyber domain. In the following op-ed, former vice-chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Sandy Winnefeld and former Air Force Materiel Command head Ellen Pawlikowski lay out their vision of how to introduce greater cyber resiliency for space.
Catastrophic events, such as the terrorist attacks of 9/11, sometimes arrive as so-called “black swans.” These are events completely unforeseen, largely due to failures of imagination. Other times, catastrophes have arrived in the form of so-called “gray rhinos” — equally impactful events that were actually envisioned by leaders who failed to take preventive measures.
Inaction can be caused by analysis suggesting a low probability of the event, miscalculation of the resources necessary to address the threat, or simple denial that something so bad could actually occur. It doesn’t take much to find a recent example: the government knew for a long time that a pandemic was a serious possibility, but nonetheless was almost completely unprepared when COVID arrived. These gray rhinos stare us in the face, but we too often find it difficult to do anything about them in advance.
The potential for great power conflict is certainly on everyone’s minds, and some would suggest that the US and its allies are not treating it as a gray rhino this time. While change in the military is maddingly slow due to outdated concepts and sclerotic legacy procurement systems, the military is beginning to shift its focus from counter-insurgency operations to more challenging near-peer competitors.
However, there is at least one element of such a conflict that persists as a gray rhino. It is highly likely that an adversary like China or Russia would use cyberattacks in addition to, or even in lieu of, kinetic attacks to neutralize the satellites on which we depend so much for communications, surveillance, and precision navigation and timing. Whether it involves intrusion in satellite networks’ control links or tampering with the data they move, a successful attack would have a near-catastrophic impact on our ability to fight. Moreover, depending on the target set it would also have collateral effects on capabilities essential to everyday life in Western nations.
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