Space enthusiasts the world over are regularly awestruck by the great leaps forward that new and privately financed space companies are achieving every week. Rockets that can land themselves just minutes after launching commercial satellites into orbit. Unparalleled smallsat proliferation that can monitor space weather or capture images over Ukraine or Israel/Palestine to gain insight into the situation on the ground. Mega constellations that even when only partially realized, like Starlink, provide continuous communication in even the most remote areas. All to harness the power of space advancing life back on Earth.
On the other side of the coin, however, is another story playing out during this booming epoch in space history: some commercial innovators are falling short on delivering on their promises. Even after championing the private investment of hundreds of millions of dollars, many of our senior leaders and their advisors in Washington are justifiably concerned that some of these companies just won’t be able to cross the infamous Valley of Death. Privately, they are asking me what they can do to capitalize on this wave of private sector growth while avoiding spending taxpayer money perpetuating foolish business plans or (even worse) technical Ponzi schemes.
What began again with frothy enthusiasm a decade ago is finally coming back down to earthly realism. Bolstered by profits realized from tech sector exits, venture capital began pouring into “new space” companies, some with only half-baked business plans. Today, many are careening towards imminent death as the go-go era of easy space investment funds wanes. The rate of commercial tech adoption by the government has not yet met the expectations that founders pitched early-stage investors. Even though more US government money is being spent today on space than at any time in our history, commercial CEOs are being let go for not meeting revenue goals pitched during capital raises.
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